Story Points: Why is this so hard?

▤ Summary

This is a better direction than ruining the measurement by insisting on smaller story point numbers without changing the muchness of the work. Each time we execute in the timebox, we are rolling some number of dice (metaphorically) and our actual values can land anywhere in the distribution. You might get something roughly similar to this: Once you have done the work over several months, you can see where the clusters are and start to recognize some likely values based on the story point estimate and the past performance of the group. Given the ranges, means, and standard deviations, you can devise a Monte Carlo simulation and calculate the duration with an 85% or higher likelihood of success. Then you could count stories and multiply by the mean value for the band plus the standard deviation, and that would be “pretty good” (probably).

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