EIA projects global conventional vehicle fleet will peak in 2038
Summary
We project that an increase in economic activity, population, and private mobility will result in more global LDVs through 2050. We project the population of non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries will grow at over three times the population growth rate of OECD countries and that the non-OECD motorization rate will increase from 92 vehicles per thousand people to 173 vehicles per thousand people between 2020 and 2050. The OECD countries’ motorization rate remains around 530 vehicles per thousand people through the projection period. The 2020 global LDV fleet primarily consists of conventional gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles, but sales of EVs are projected to grow due to recent technology and policy developments. In our International Energy Outlook 2021, EVs include both full battery, all-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles that are primarily powered by liquid fuels when batteries are nearly depleted.