CommonSpirit Uses Predictive Modeling Tools to Forecast COVID-19 Cases
Summary
The forecasts made possible by these predictive modeling tools provide valuable insight into the peaks and valleys of COVID-19 infection rates, enabling better planning for potential surges of new patients while hospitals continue working toward resuming their full spectrum of needed services. While no single platform can make a perfect prediction, these models are one tool in CommonSpirit’s toolkit to help care sites prepare for a patient surge. “We need to be prepared for asynchronous waves of COVID-19 patients in different regions until a higher level of herd immunity is present.” CommonSpirit is able to generate a predictive outlook for roughly 75 percent of its markets across the country, including communities in Texas, California, Arizona, the Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Midwest and Southeast. The cell phone data show how much people are traveling outside their home communities, providing a direct measure of physical distancing. With its national office in Chicago and a team of approximately 150,000 employees and 25,000 physicians and advanced practice clinicians, CommonSpirit Health operates 137 hospitals and more than 1000 care sites across 21 states.