Our Exit Polls Compared to the Actual Election Results: How did we Do?

▤ Summary

If we compare the results of our exit polls in the 6 municipalities with the actual election results, the performance of the exit polls looks strong. In practice, any deviation between our exit poll results and the actual seats won by a party is never larger than 1 seat. The official result for the referendum will be made public on March 29, 2018, but currently it looks like the no-vote gained a small advantage over the yes-vote. Considering the 5% error margin, which we communicated beforehand, the referendum result was in our judgement “too close to call”. The tables below show a detailed comparison between the 7 exit polls and the actual election results in the municipalities and the result for the referendum vote.

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