Iran Ceasefire Extension Odds Drop From 86% To 32% On Crypto Prediction Market After Trump's Latest Social Media Post

▤ Summary

Polymarket traders sharply cut the odds that the U.S. will extend a ceasefire with Iran after former President Trump’s recent social post, driving the contract’s probability from about 86% to roughly 32% over 24 hours. Users have wagered roughly $4.35 million on the outcome, and Polymarket’s estimate that a deal would be announced by June 7 fell from 87% to 54%. The probability of a permanent peace pact by the end of June also slid from 71% to 49% amid Tehran’s denials of concessions and GOP lawmakers’ concerns. The article links the market swing directly to Trump’s remarks and an AI-generated image he posted, which cast doubt on progress toward an agreement.

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