Poll: Liberals and Conservatives tied, but advantage is still with Carneys Liberals.
Summary
As the first week of Canada’s 2025 general election comes to an end, our latest Abacus Data survey—our third poll of the campaign—finds the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck nationally, with each party securing 39% of the committed vote among all eligible voters. Given the party’s recent struggles, it will need to recalibrate quickly if it hopes to gain momentum and position itself as a viable alternative for progressive voters uneasy about either a Liberal or Conservative government. Atlantic Canada: The Liberals enjoy a commanding 21-point lead, building on the East Coast’s historical tilt toward the party in recent decades and reverting a shift to the Conservatives we had seen over the past two years. Regionally, gains in Ontario and Atlantic Canada are bolstering the Liberals, while the Conservatives are clinging to their core support in the Prairies and among specific age cohorts (Millennials and Gen X). Liberals have seized on these concerns, positioning Mark Carney as the best captain in a storm, while Pierre Poilievre is still trying to focus minds on inflation, housing, taxes, and government spending hoping these can find a way to overshadow anxieties about Trump.