Line Charts with Trend Lines are Fake News

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Here’s why: “Hi, I’m Jay Arthur, author of “Lean Six Sigma For Hospitals” and QI Macros [software]. She was wearing a nice blue pantsuit [and] comfortable shoes because it’s a lot of walking in these conferences, but she was staring at it like crazy. She pulls out her cell phone she takes a picture of this improvement poster, and so I thought, “Well, I guess I better go find out what Nurse Betty was doing,” right? The chart on the poster had a trend line through it that looked like “Oh yeah, we’ve reduced infections, yay!” right? So I went ahead and I did it… but then unlike theirs, I put the trend line in but I added the goodness of fit metric called r squared.

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