IEA report outlines growth potential for liquid biofuels
Summary
The IEA also notes that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also impacted the global biofuel sector due to the resulting increased energy and feedstock costs. The Stated Polices Scenario (STEPs) shows the trajectory implied by today’s policy settings, while the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) assumes that all aspirational targets announced by governments are met on time and in full, including their long-term net zero and energy access goals. Finally, the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario maps out a way to achieve a 1.5 degree Celsius stabilization in the rise in global average temperatures, alongside universal access to modern energy by 2030. Under the STEPs scenario, the IEA predicts demand for liquid biofuels would grow from 2.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2021 to 3.4 mboe/d in 2030 and 5.3 mboe/d in 2050. The production of advanced, non-food based liquid biofuels increases under all three scenarios but is critically dependent upon developed sufficient quantities of advanced feedstocks; demonstrating and scaling up ways to derived sustainable feedstocks from non-food energy crop production on non-arable and degraded land; and regulatory stability, according to IEA.